Research

Publications

Social and political trust diverge during a crisis

Arnstein Aassve, Tommaso Capezzone, Nicolò Cavalli, Pierluigi Conzo, Chen Peng

Scientific Reports (2024)

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This study shows that social and political trust may diverge in the face of shared threats, and that this pattern is driven by negative information about crisis management. Leveraging a three-wave panel survey and an information-provision experiment in the USA during the COVID-19 crisis, our research reveals that negative perceptions of pandemic management lead to a decline in political trust and a parallel increase in social trust. This dynamic is pronounced among government supporters, who, confronted with COVID-19 challenges, experience a substantial erosion of political trust. Simultaneously, there is a notable rise in social trust within this group. Our analysis suggests that, as government supporters attributed more responsibility for the crisis to their political leader, political trust was supplanted by social trust. Disenchanted voters, feeling let down by institutions, sought support in society. Both the survey and the experiment underscore that societal shocks can prompt individuals to shift from relying on formal institutions to informal ones as a coping strategy. This research contributes a generalizable framework explaining how negative perceptions of crisis management can lead societies to substitute political trust with social trust, advancing our understanding of societal responses to shared threats and adaptive strategies during crises.

Working Papers

We care, but delegate: Climate disasters and climate migration trigger concern, normative beliefs, and altruism – but not cooperation

Laura Anfossi, Tommaso Capezzone, Pierluigi Conzo, Giulia Fuochi, Cristina Onesta Mosso, Roberto Zotti

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Despite growing awareness of climate change, individual action remains limited. We conducted two pre-registered experiments (one online with a representative sample, one in the laboratory with incentivized tasks) to examine whether framing climate risks as natural disasters – i.e., an immediate, unpredictable threat – or climate migration – i.e., a distant, gradual threat – in one's own country fosters pro-environmental behavior, also identifying mechanisms behind the persistent intention–action gap. Exposure to nature risks increased personal normative beliefs, concern, and donations to environmental causes, but did not promote cooperation in settings prone to free-riding. Hormonal data revealed a defensive 'flight' response, suggesting risk avoidance in strategic contexts. Altruism emerged in non-competitive settings, but collective action remained limited by fear that others would not cooperate, prompting individuals to delegate responsibility to institutions. This tendency was especially pronounced among participants with high institutional trust, who, after exposure to climate risks, lowered their contributions and expectations in strategic settings, while increasing donations in non-strategic contexts.

Work in Progress

Valence Hits or Mobilizing Blows? How Negative Campaigns Reshape Politics

Tommaso Capezzone

Who Is to Blame (or Praise)? Perceived Service Quality and Responsibility in Multilevel Government

Tommaso Capezzone, Pierluigi Conzo, Willem Sas, Dmitriy Vorobyev, Roberto Zotti

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One of the advantages of multi-level government is that it can bring policies closer to voters, thus improving accountability. In this paper we ask whether such a layered and complex system can also erode transparency, undercutting accountability instead. We conduct a survey experiment with a nationally representative sample of 5,000 Italian citizens to investigate how responsibility for public services as well as their quality is perceived. We find that when respondents are asked which level of government is responsible for certain important services — local, regional, or central — incorrect answers abound. A subset of respondents is then provided with correct information about which level of government is actually responsible. We find that when this feedback shifts perceived responsibility toward a level of government that is politically aligned with the respondent, service quality assessments become more favorable. Providing feedback to respondents who answered correctly also boosts reported service quality, especially for the non-aligned, suggesting a confirmation effect. These findings highlight the importance of information provision and the politically motivated quality assessment that may be present without it.

Policy Work

Maintaining trust during the COVID-19 pandemic

Arnstein Aassve, Daphne Ahrendt, Tommaso Capezzone, Michele Consolini, Dimokritos Kavadias, Mathis Saeys

Publications Office of the European Union, Eurofound (2022)

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The report examines how citizens' trust in institutions–including national governments, the EU, science and the media–evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. The role of the media is analysed, in particular the relationship between the use of social media and trust and the impact of misinformation (incorrect or misleading information) and disinformation (deliberately deceptive information) during the crisis period. Based on an extensive literature review, the report describes the consequences of COVID-19 policy measures, with a focus on citizens' trust in their national institutions and in the EU. The report outlines the dynamics of trust and discontent in the context of the pandemic, including the influence of the vaccination roll-out.